Recent publications

Land use, worker heterogeneity and welfare benefits of public goods (2018)

Coen Teulings, Ioulia Ossokina & Henri de Groot, Journal of Urban Economics 103: 67-82

We show that investments in public goods change the optimal land use in their vicinity, leading to additional welfare benefits. This occurs through two sorting mechanisms. First, availability of public goods leads to higher population densities. Second, population groups sort according to their preferences for public goods. We develop a structural spatial general equilibrium model that accounts for these effects. The model is estimated using data on transport infrastructure, commuting behavior, land use and land rents for some 3000 ZIP-codes in the Netherlands and for three levels of education. Welfare benefits of investments in public transport infrastructure are shown to differ sharply by workers' educational attainment. Welfare gains from changes in land use account for up to 30% of the total benefits of a transport investment.

Urban traffic externalities (2015)

Ioulia Ossokina and Gerard Verweij. Regional science and urban economics, 55, 1-13.

We show that the new bypass N14 near The Hague led to environmental benefits by reducing traffic nuisance on local streets. We combine a quasi-experiment and a fixed effect hedonic price model to estimate how housing demand and housing prices in the neighborhood of the highway reacted to these changes. We find that a 50% lower traffic density induced some 3000 euro increase in housing prices on average. Residents did not foresee this change in advance however.

Discussion papers

Highway expansions increase local economic activity | The Netherlands (2018)

Ioulia Ossokina, Jos van Ommeren and Henk van Mourik, discussion paper

In many countries, highway construction occurs nowadays mainly through expansions - adding new lanes to existing corridors - rather than through construction of new greenfield highways. The economic effects of expansions have hardly been studied. We estimate the effect of these expansions on employment at a detailed spatial level exploiting information about all highway expansions during a period of 25 years for the Netherlands. Our identification strategy uses that the precise construction year of expansions is highly random. We demonstrate that highway expansions rather quickly - within 3 to 5 years after the expansion - induce a redistribution of local employment. Adding 10 km lane increases employment within 5 km of the highway by 3 percent, but reduces employment further away (between 5 to 10 km). Our results contribute to the ongoing public discussion about the local costs and benefits of highway investments.

Best living concepts for the elderly: a stated choice experiment and architectural design (2018)

Ioulia Ossokina, Theo Arentze, Dick van Gameren & Dirk van den Heuvel, Netspar discussion paper

In this paper we combine the insightsfrom socialsciences and architecture to design best living concepts for a specific target group, elderly homeowners. We perform a stated choice experiment to study residential preferences of this group and translate the results into an architectural design of senior‐ friendly housing. This methodological approach is novel to the literature. We derive the willingness‐to‐ pay for different residential attributes and show how these attributes can be traded off against each other to create best living concepts. We discuss how these concepts can be translated into customized architectural design while making use of standard architectural elements.

Spatial and welfare effects of automated driving: will cities grow, decline or both? (2018)

George Gelauff, Ioulia Ossokina, Coen Teulings, discussion paper, revision submitted

This paper studies the possible effects of automated driving on population concentration and dispersion and on welfare in the Netherlands. We performed simulations using LUCA, the Dutch spatial general equilibrium model. Our simulations account for two possible effects of automation: (i) self-driving cars allow drivers to use their time in the car more productively; and (ii) self-driving public transit offers faster and more comfortable door-to-door transfers than traditional buses, trams and metros. We find that more productive time use during car trips results in population flight from cities. The fast and inexpensive automated public transit has the opposite effect: it leads to further population clustering in urban areas. A combination of these two components may result in the population concentrating in the largest, most attractive cities and their suburbs, at the expense of smaller cities and non-urban regions. The simulations suggest that welfare benefits due to population relocation and changes in land use may equal up to 10% of the total welfare effects of automation. Our results are particularly relevant for countries where public transit claims a considerable share of urban mobility. Neglecting the impact of vehicle automation on public transit could result in biased policy recommendations.

The urban economics of retail (2017)

Coen Teulings, Ioulia Ossokina & Jan Svitak, discussion paper.

Brick-and-mortar retail is melting down in many countries. Retail vacancies are an eyesore and a source of negative externalities. Our paper is one of the first to study these developments from a land market perspective. Exploiting a novel model of land use in shopping areas, we show that under mild assumptions, pedestrian behaviour of visitors leads to a negative distance decay in retail rents. We test this insight on unique microdata from 300 larger shopping areas in the Netherlands and obtain an average rent gradient of -15% per 100 meter distance from the centre of the area. Shopping areas with attractive amenities and facilities have a flatter decay. We add to this model competition between retail and residential land at the edge of a shopping area and show how this competition helps eliminate structural vacancy that follows a drop in consumer demand. Evidence on land use transformations in the Netherlands during the Great Recession supports these conclusions.

Older publications

Geographical range of amenity benefits: hedonic price analysis for railway stations (2010)

Ioulia Ossokina, CPB discussion paper no. 146

Adoption subsidy versus technology standards (2008)

Ioulia Ossokina and Otto Swank. De Economist, 156 (3), 241-267.

Cost-benefit analysis of a railway station area development (2008)

Carel Eijgenraam and Ioulia Ossokina. In Bruinsma, F., Pels, E. and H. Priemus (eds.), Railway development: Impact on urban dynamics, pp. 191-211, Physica-Verlag.

The optimal degree of polarization (2004)

Ioulia Ossokina and Otto Swank. European Journal of Political Economy, 20, 255-262.

Polarization, political instability and active learning (2003)

Ioulia Ossokina and Otto Swank. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 105(1), 1-14.