On this page you find my publications and working papers in English.

Recent publications

Spatial and welfare effects of automated driving: will cities grow, decline or both? (2019)

George Gelauff, Ioulia Ossokina, Coen Teulings, Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice: 121: 277-294

We show that automated driving can lead both, to growth and decline of cities. We simulate spatial effects of automated driving for the Netherlands using LUCA, the Dutch spatial general equilibrium model. Two components of automation are accounted for: (i) more productive time use during car trips; and (ii) fast and comfortable door-to-door automated public transit. We find that the car component results in population flight from cities, while the public transit component leads to population clustering in urban areas. A combination of the two may result in the population concentrating in the largest, most attractive cities, at the expense of smaller cities and non-urban regions. Welfare benefits due to automation are considerable, with up to 10% coming from population relocation and changes in land use.

Land use, worker heterogeneity and welfare benefits of public goods (2018)

Coen Teulings, Ioulia Ossokina & Henri de Groot, Journal of Urban Economics 103: 67-82

We show that investments in public goods change the optimal land use in their vicinity, leading to additional welfare benefits. This occurs through two sorting mechanisms. First, availability of public goods leads to higher population densities. Second, population groups sort according to their preferences for public goods. We develop a structural spatial general equilibrium model that accounts for these effects. The model is estimated using data on transport infrastructure, commuting behavior, land use and land rents for some 3000 ZIP-codes in the Netherlands and for three levels of education. Welfare benefits of investments in public transport infrastructure are shown to differ sharply by workers' educational attainment. Welfare gains from changes in land use account for up to 30% of the total benefits of a transport investment.

Urban traffic externalities (2015)

Ioulia Ossokina and Gerard Verweij. Regional science and urban economics, 55, 1-13.

We show that the new bypass N14 near The Hague led to environmental benefits by reducing traffic nuisance on local streets. We combine a quasi-experiment and a fixed effect hedonic price model to estimate how housing demand and housing prices in the neighborhood of the highway reacted to these changes. We find that a 50% lower traffic density induced some 3000 euro increase in housing prices on average. Residents did not foresee this change in advance however.

Working papers

Do tenants want to invest in energy retrofitting and can information affect their choice? (2019)

Ioulia Ossokina, Stephan Kerperien and Theo Arentze, working paper

We show that information can affect whether social tenants are willing to agree with energy retrofitting of their dwellings. We conduct a choice experiment in which respondents' choices indicate the value they place on the energy saving technology used, the energy bill savings, the corresponding rent increase, the CO2 reduction and other attributes of the retrofitting. The survey is combined with a treatment in which part of the respondents gets additional information on the financial or comfort-related consequences of the renovations. We find that information provision can both increase and decrease the willingness to agree with retrofitting. When comfort-related consequences of renovations are highlighted, people are more likely to choose for retrofitting. Information on financial consequences on the other hand makes people more critical and reduces the support for retrofitting. The attributes and levels in the experiment are based on actual energy efficiency investments in Dutch residential housing. Our simulations suggest that between 70 and 80% of tenants are willing to agree with existing retrofitting packages, also when these include a rent increase. Information provision can change this share up or down with 3 to 5 percentage points. This effect is half as large as the impact of offering a dwelling facilities renewal (bathroom, kitchen, toilet) as part of retrofitting.

Highway expansions increase local economic activity (2018)

Ioulia Ossokina, Jos van Ommeren and Henk van Mourik, working paper

In many countries, highway construction occurs nowadays mainly through expansions - adding new lanes to existing corridors - rather than through construction of new greenfield highways. The economic effects of expansions have hardly been studied. We estimate the effect of these expansions on employment at a detailed spatial level exploiting information about all highway expansions during a period of 25 years for the Netherlands. Our identification strategy uses that the precise construction year of expansions is highly random. We demonstrate that highway expansions rather quickly - within 3 to 5 years after the expansion - induce a redistribution of local employment. Adding 10 km lane increases employment within 5 km of the highway by 3 percent, but reduces employment further away (between 5 to 10 km). Our results contribute to the ongoing public discussion about the local costs and benefits of highway investments.

Best living concepts for the elderly: a stated choice experiment and architectural design (2018)

Ioulia Ossokina, Theo Arentze, Dick van Gameren & Dirk van den Heuvel, Netspar discussion paper

In this paper we combine the insightsfrom socialsciences and architecture to design best living concepts for a specific target group, elderly homeowners. We perform a stated choice experiment to study residential preferences of this group and translate the results into an architectural design of senior‐ friendly housing. This methodological approach is novel to the literature. We derive the willingness‐to‐ pay for different residential attributes and show how these attributes can be traded off against each other to create best living concepts. We discuss how these concepts can be translated into customized architectural design while making use of standard architectural elements.

The urban economics of retail (2017)

Coen Teulings, Ioulia Ossokina & Jan Svitak, discussion paper.

Brick-and-mortar retail is melting down in many countries. Retail vacancies are an eyesore and a source of negative externalities. Our paper is one of the first to study these developments from a land market perspective. Exploiting a novel model of land use in shopping areas, we show that under mild assumptions, pedestrian behaviour of visitors leads to a negative distance decay in retail rents. We test this insight on unique microdata from 300 larger shopping areas in the Netherlands and obtain an average rent gradient of -15% per 100 meter distance from the centre of the area. Shopping areas with attractive amenities and facilities have a flatter decay. We add to this model competition between retail and residential land at the edge of a shopping area and show how this competition helps eliminate structural vacancy that follows a drop in consumer demand. Evidence on land use transformations in the Netherlands during the Great Recession supports these conclusions.

Older publications

Geographical range of amenity benefits: hedonic price analysis for railway stations (2010)

Ioulia Ossokina, CPB discussion paper no. 146

Adoption subsidy versus technology standards (2008)

Ioulia Ossokina and Otto Swank. De Economist, 156 (3), 241-267.

Cost-benefit analysis of a railway station area development (2008)

Carel Eijgenraam and Ioulia Ossokina. In Bruinsma, F., Pels, E. and H. Priemus (eds.), Railway development: Impact on urban dynamics, pp. 191-211, Physica-Verlag.

The optimal degree of polarization (2004)

Ioulia Ossokina and Otto Swank. European Journal of Political Economy, 20, 255-262.

Polarization, political instability and active learning (2003)

Ioulia Ossokina and Otto Swank. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 105(1), 1-14.