On this page you find my publications and working papers in English.

Recent publications

Spatial and welfare effects of automated driving: will cities grow, decline or both? (2019)

George Gelauff, Ioulia Ossokina, Coen Teulings, Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice: 121: 277-294

We show that automated driving can lead both, to growth and decline of cities. We simulate spatial effects of automated driving for the Netherlands using LUCA, the Dutch spatial general equilibrium model. Two components of automation are accounted for: (i) more productive time use during car trips; and (ii) fast and comfortable door-to-door automated public transit. We find that the car component results in population flight from cities, while the public transit component leads to population clustering in urban areas. A combination of the two may result in the population concentrating in the largest, most attractive cities, at the expense of smaller cities and non-urban regions. Welfare benefits due to automation are considerable, with up to 10% coming from population relocation and changes in land use.

Best living concepts for the elderly: a stated choice experiment and architectural design (2019)

Ioulia Ossokina, Theo Arentze, Dick van Gameren & Dirk van den Heuvel, Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, forthcoming

In this paper we combine the insights from social sciences and architecture to design best living concepts for a specific target group, elderly homeowners. We perform a stated choice experiment to study residential preferences of this group and translate the results into an architectural design of senior-friendly housing. This methodological approach is novel to the literature. We derive the willingness-to-pay for different residential attributes and show how these attributes can be traded off against each other to create best living concepts. We discuss how these living concepts can be translated into customized architectural design while making use of standard architectural elements.

Land use, worker heterogeneity and welfare benefits of public goods (2018)

Coen Teulings, Ioulia Ossokina & Henri de Groot, Journal of Urban Economics 103: 67-82

We show that investments in public goods change the optimal land use in their vicinity, leading to additional welfare benefits. This occurs through two sorting mechanisms. First, availability of public goods leads to higher population densities. Second, population groups sort according to their preferences for public goods. We develop a structural spatial general equilibrium model that accounts for these effects. The model is estimated using data on transport infrastructure, commuting behavior, land use and land rents for some 3000 ZIP-codes in the Netherlands and for three levels of education. Welfare benefits of investments in public transport infrastructure are shown to differ sharply by workers' educational attainment. Welfare gains from changes in land use account for up to 30% of the total benefits of a transport investment.

Urban traffic externalities (2015)

Ioulia Ossokina and Gerard Verweij. Regional science and urban economics, 55, 1-13.

We show that the new bypass N14 near The Hague led to environmental benefits by reducing traffic nuisance on local streets. We combine a quasi-experiment and a fixed effect hedonic price model to estimate how housing demand and housing prices in the neighborhood of the highway reacted to these changes. We find that a 50% lower traffic density induced some 3000 euro increase in housing prices on average. Residents did not foresee this change in advance however.

Working papers

Does information encourage or discourage tenants to accept energy retrofitting of homes? (2020)

Ioulia Ossokina, Stephan Kerperien and Theo Arentze, working paper

We study whether providing information about the consequences of residential energy retrofitting encourages public housing tenants to agree with retrofitting, and how this differs by type of information offered. We run a choice experiment in which tenants select between retrofitting packages that differ on the renewable technology used, the energy bill savings, the corresponding rent increase and the CO2 reduction. Two subsamples of participants get additional information on the financial respectively comfort-related consequences of retrofitting. We find that an average tenant is willing to agree with retrofitting when energy bill savings are 30% higher than the rent increase. Information on comfort-related consequences of renovations makes people more likely to choose for retrofitting. On the contrary, information on financial consequences reduces the support for retrofitting.

Highway widenings, traffic conditions and economic activity (2020)

Ioulia Ossokina, Jos van Ommeren and Henk van Mourik, working paper

Highway construction occurs nowadays mainly through widening of existing roads rather than through building of new roads in many countries. The effects of widenings are understudied. We examine the effect of highway widenings between 1991-2018 in the Netherlands. We show that widenings induce immediate and persistent (up to 6 years), large positive traffic effects on widened segments (vehicle kilometres and speed increase by 30%), and also positive effects within broader regions. We further find evidence that widenings induce a relocation of employment towards locations within 5 km of the widened highway, but do not affect other types of economic activity.

Reference-dependent housing choice behaviour: Why are elderly reluctant to move? (2020)

Ioulia Ossokina & Theo Arentze, discussion paper.

This paper provides novel insights into whether reference-dependence affects the preference for moving of elderly households. We propose an extended framework to measure reference dependence that allows the identification of symmetric as well as asymmetric valuation of losses and gains by an individual. The framework is applied in a discrete choice model based on a stated preference experiment with 440 elderly Dutch home owners. We find clearly that the current living situation (reference) affects the housing choice behaviour; the effect differs however by housing attribute. Among other things, we find a general aversion to changing location. The framework we present is generic and can be readily applied in other stated choice experiments. The reference-based model increases the goodness-of-fit substantially in the case considered and the results have clear implications for ageing-in-place policies which are currently being developed in many countries..

The urban economics of retail (2017)

Coen Teulings, Ioulia Ossokina & Jan Svitak, discussion paper.

Brick-and-mortar retail is melting down in many countries. Retail vacancies are an eyesore and a source of negative externalities. Our paper is one of the first to study these developments from a land market perspective. Exploiting a novel model of land use in shopping areas, we show that under mild assumptions, pedestrian behaviour of visitors leads to a negative distance decay in retail rents. We test this insight on unique microdata from 300 larger shopping areas in the Netherlands and obtain an average rent gradient of -15% per 100 meter distance from the centre of the area. Shopping areas with attractive amenities and facilities have a flatter decay. We add to this model competition between retail and residential land at the edge of a shopping area and show how this competition helps eliminate structural vacancy that follows a drop in consumer demand. Evidence on land use transformations in the Netherlands during the Great Recession supports these conclusions.

Older publications

Geographical range of amenity benefits: hedonic price analysis for railway stations (2010)

Ioulia Ossokina, CPB discussion paper no. 146

Adoption subsidy versus technology standards (2008)

Ioulia Ossokina and Otto Swank. De Economist, 156 (3), 241-267.

Cost-benefit analysis of a railway station area development (2008)

Carel Eijgenraam and Ioulia Ossokina. In Bruinsma, F., Pels, E. and H. Priemus (eds.), Railway development: Impact on urban dynamics, pp. 191-211, Physica-Verlag.

The optimal degree of polarization (2004)

Ioulia Ossokina and Otto Swank. European Journal of Political Economy, 20, 255-262.

Polarization, political instability and active learning (2003)

Ioulia Ossokina and Otto Swank. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 105(1), 1-14.